Can McCain Win or, is All Lost?

Recently, I have been accused of being a McCain basher. Nothing could be further from the truth. I have great respect for his life and his accomplishments though I sorely part company with his political philosophy. So let me discuss for a moment, whether McCain is finished. Obama is showing a double digit lead in recent polls. One need only google to find them. The trend lines are not good. So the question immediately arises: Can he win? The purpose of this post is to answer that question in the affirmative.

CAN MCCAIN WIN?

Between now and November 5, there yawns a vast chasm for the Republican Party to bridge. On his current message, McCain simply cannot span the bridge. He will not win. His message stands for federal involvement in the economy, lax immigration, and an increase in the federal budget to the tune of $6.9 billion. Further, his inconsistencies lead a few, including myself, to distrust McCain. These inconsistencies include, for instance, his flip flop on immigration and Newt Gingrich’s absurd idea of “Green Conservatism” or If-we-can’t-beat’em-we’ll-abdicate-the-conservative-message-and-join’em strategy. I think McCain has an extremely tough hurdle, especially given the recent polls. (Yes I know they’re just polls—Ron Paul supporters said the same thing. Like it or not, polls show at least a statistical trend that cannot be ignored.) So just how is it possible for McCain to win? To answer this, consider the candidates.

Most of the Republican candidates failed to distinquish themselves from each other. I am still perplexed as to how McCain became the nominee over Romney or Huckabee. But I digress. Out of all the political campaigns, only one showed any sort of excitement and any sort of real distinction. Or perhaps, it could be said, only one gave the halcyon cry for “real change.” Whether you like it or not, that candidate was Ron Paul. Inasmuch as McCain’s campaign may hate to admit it, they need to take a few strategies from the Ron Paul playbook. They could do this even in secret but the adoption must be conservative and it must be consistent from hereon out. McCain’s campaign can then get back on his old message of being the reformer.

Yes, yes, Mr. Oath. Every good politico knows a candidate has to have a message and we have to fall in line with our party. Right. But I’m not basing this post solely on The Oath’s subjective perception of what McCain should do. Rather, I am basing it on, of all things, recent polls. Consider the findings of a Rasmussen poll published on June 6, 2008:

Also similar to previous findings, voters in the new survey prefer fewer services and lower taxes (64%) to more services and higher taxes (24%), an issue that is sure to be central to the upcoming presidential contest. Republican presidential contender John McCain has repeatedly touted his fiscal conservatism, while Democratic hopeful Barack Obama has outlined several expanded government initiatives including one to provide more health care coverage to low-income Americans.

A recent Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 51% of voters believe that their taxes will go up if Obama is elected. Thirty-three percent (33%) believe their taxes will go up if McCain is elected.

Did you get that? Let me repeat. Similar to previous findings, 64% of voters prefer fewer government services and lower taxes. But that’s not all. The liberal Washington Compost published its recent poll of June 15, 2008.

36. Generally speaking, would you say you favor (smaller government with fewer services), or (larger government with more services)?  

              Smaller govt.    Larger govt.      No
             fewer services   more services   opinion
6/15/08           50              45             5
11/1/07           50              44             5
6/20/04           50              46             4
11/4/02 LV        61              34             5
11/3/02 LV        60              34             5
11/2/02 LV        62              34             3
7/15/02           53              42             6
1/27/02           54              41             5
10/9/00 RV        58              32            10
10/1/00 RV        58              33             9
7/23/00           59              34             7
7/23/00 RV        61              32             7
4/2/00            56              38             7
8/16/98           59              35             6
8/5/96            63              32             5
7/8/92            55              38             7

Also contained in the poll are shocking revelations. To wit, Obama would better handle the economy than McCain by a margin of 52% to 36%. And, Obama is also expected to bring change to Washington by a margin of 60% to 20%. Given these polls, how do we explain Obama’s surging poll numbers when 51% of the voters in the Rasmussen poll believe Obama will raise their taxes if elected? There is only one explanation: McCain has no message that voters are identifying him with. Consistent with the polls, however, is the idea that America is still conservative.

The voice for change is also apparent in the Washington Post poll at question 7. It notes that 84% of the country thinks we’re headed in the wrong direction. Question 10 shows that 64% think that the Iraq ”use of force” action is not worth fighting for. In other words, the people want real change.

True Change Means Restoring the Republic & Liberty

McCain’s former message as a reformer is clearly not only viable but winnable. He needs, however, to distinquish himself from Obama as the polls show. How? He needs to promise the following:

1. Smaller government–not just limited government
2. Lower taxes for all
3. Protecting economic and personal liberty
4. Timetable for withdrawal from Iraq (This he has done.)
5. Manage the war against terrorists better
6. Enforce the immigration laws

And how does he get this message out?  “Remember the last time big government Republicans ran everything? We had the single largest increase in the size of the federal government since LBJ. They produced an inflationary period because of guns and butter. Spending is out of control. They’ve given us nothing but bigger government with more failed services. They mismanaged wars that should have been over long ago. I’ve not been a part of that big government crowd and it’s why a lot of ‘em don’t like me. My loyalty is to you. But that’s not all.

Do you remember when Democrats were in charge? We had the largest tax increases in history. Businesses shut down. Jobs were lost. We had more wasteful spending of your tax dollars, more wars, and less freedom. In the 70s, we were in the gas line for miles, some of you on even days and others on odd days. Remember? Obama tells us he wants real change. His change is more of the past failures. He wants to swell the federal government even more. He wants to bring you the failure of government managed healthcare. Government can’t even run its budget. Who wants more of that? 

I am John McCain. I am the Maverick. I don’t do the things that big government Republicans do or what the Democrats stand for. My voting record shows it. Compare me to Obama. The choice is clear—we either go up or down. If you want to go up—if you want to restore the Republic, restore our respect around the world, reduce the size of the federal government, grow the economy, and restore your liberty under the Constitution, I promise you I will do that as your President. If you want to go down further than we have already, then go ahead and hand Obama your blank check. Just remember that if you do, it’ll be the last check you give before you file Chapter 7.”

From now to November, McCain needs to jackhammer this message into the electorate. He needs to divest himself of this silly notion of “bipartisanship”. Indeed, that is what change and reform mean, parting company with standard practice. If he does this, heck, I’d even vote and contribute money. Do you have any suggestions for his message?